When war is convenient for Arab leaders in troubles
giovedì 21 luglio 2011 English 0 commenti
Il Giornale, 21 July 2011When a leader aims to consolidate his power and to get away with accountability, what does he do? He stirs up a conflict along with the usual conspiracy theory, then he causes clashes, spreads blood, and calls to arms. In short, he goes off to war. This is the current situation in the Middle East, in particular after the revolutions that were kindly called "Arab Spring". This warfare scenario calls for war against the usual enemies: Israel, the Western world, and America in particular. Indeed, Obama seems to be less popular than George W. Bush in the Arab world: as a survey of the Arab-American Center shows, 8 Arabs on 10 negatively consider the international role of the USA, and only 5 Egyptians on 100 positively consider America, when in 2009, 30 on 100 did.
The most determined to wage war to avoid its own troubles is Hizbullah, the Shi'i militia supported by Iran and Syria, which use it as a domination army in Lebanon. Saad Hariri, Rafik's son, fled to Paris, where he declared that the problem of his country is Hezbullah. A new revolution could solve the problem, especially after the Special Tribunal for Lebanon has indicted Hizbullah's officials for the 2005 attack in which Rafik Hariri was assassinated. Lebanese wonder about the necessity of those weapons accumulated by Nasrallah, whopromises to wage a new war. This time the spurious reason is territorial waters and the gas reserves that Israel has discovered. Nasrallah would use this as a new excuse; a specious reason indeed, since Israel has delimited its sea boundaries in agreement with Cyprus in 2007, and so did Lebanon as well. In 2000, Nasrallah used the excuse of Shaba Farms, dragging the government he built up in his venture. The danger is even higher considering the current crisis in Iran and Syria, Lebanon's allies.
About Iran, enough to say that Ahmadinejad is on bad terms with the religious leadership and that the country is devoted to a regime change that repression tries to balk.
In Syria, Assad has lost credibility to the eyes of the world, after last weekend's bloodshed, including Damascus, and the Istanbul summit in which the opposition to his regime has consolidated. In order to shift the attention, he tries to provoke Israel, by sending his citizens and refugees to the border.
Even more significant, Assad has recently increased arm supplies to Hezbullah, including ballistic missiles. With the support of Iranians and North Koreans, Syria goes on producing sophisticated missiles in a secret site called "the missiles mountain", inside Jabal Taqsis, near Hama. After the delivery of two Scud D, with a range over 700 km, which could hit Israel, Jordan, and Turkey, the Shi'i militia has also received a certain number of M600, with a range over 250km, which could hit Tel Aviv. Hezbullah, in gratitude, participates in the repression, the rebels accuse.
Hamas, which has also fired missiles during these days, has 10 thousand ballistic missiles, including Fajr 5, which could hit Tel Aviv. This is going on ever since the Egyptian revolution has changed the stability relationships between Gaza and Israel, in order to gain favour with the Muslim Brotherhood. Since February, Hamas has smuggled weapons three times more than during all 2010.
Hamas, which has also fired missiles during these days, has 10 thousand ballistic missiles, including Fajr 5, which could hit Tel Aviv. This is going on ever since the Egyptian revolution has changed the stability relationships between Gaza and Israel, in order to gain favour with the Muslim Brotherhood. Since February, Hamas has smuggled weapons three times more than during all 2010.
Beyond Iran, even Sunnis are in danger. In Egypt, the Military Council is working on a new constitution that would keep and even extend its authority, and usually an army can consolidate its power when tension at borders is high: in fact all the candidates to next elections have already declared that the peace agreement with Israel has to be revised or even withdrawn. On the contrary, a new alliance with Iran is on its way.
Even in Tunisia, the Jasmine Revolution has produced a draft constitution that prohibits any normalisation with Israel, notwithstanding some oppositions. Not bad as first outcomes of an Arab Spring that everyone believed would result in peace and democracy...