Iran, the deal is near: more nuclear for all
mercoledì 1 aprile 2015 English 0 commenti
Il Giornale, April 01, 2015Unless the dramatic last-minute efforts that until today have just slightly prolonged the situation will succeed, the deal with Iran to obtain the interruption of its nuclear activity is stalled. Hence, it is still not clear if Obama’s wishes will come true as they were supposed to do yesterday evening, the deadline for the announcement of a deal destined to create another illusion, a source of danger and confusion, and a consolidated nuclear Iran on its way. Benjamin Netanyahu even predicted that, if the expected deal will be reached, the Ayatollahs would obtain the atomic bomb in just one year. But the talks were slowed down by the fragility of the P5+1 alliance, by the weakness of the American protagonist, enthusiast but too much of a loser in the Middle East to be able to provide strong guarantees, by France’s opposition after it discovered underground negotiations between the US and the Ayatollahs, and by Germany’s proverbial caution. In the end, yesterday, a deal could not be reached. If tonight the parties will not manage to reduce the gap between them, the discussion will be resumed only in June.
In short, Iran is trying to take back home its usual achievement, the one we got used to: the delegation shows a polite face, this time the one of Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif; then, in the end, it stiffens and does not agree anymore, it breaks off and receives orders from Teheran, buying time to carry on with its nuclear program. How does it do that? It is simple, like this time: it shows good will while shifting the discussion from the centrifuges to other facilities, to the inspections, to the shipping of already enriched uranium outside its borders. Anything is debatable. On any of these topics it almost says yes, then at the last minute it poses an insurmountable problem. This time, the matter is about the transfer of enriched uranium reserves to Russia: it seemed that a result had been actually obtained, but then the delegation cooled down.
Islamically speaking, negotiations are a sort of workout for Iran to pursue its goal even through deception. The spokesman of Rouhani, Sayed Hossein Mousavar, who led the Iranian delegation in 2003, explained one of the features of this technique and its goal: “We exploited divisions between the US and Europe in order to reach our goals”. Exactly as it is happening nowadays. When the “moderate” Mohammed Khatami was president, the Iranian nuclear program moved forward quite well while Iran feigned a pause. And Khatami boasted about it. It was then that the Natanz nuclear facility, one of the most dangerous, was built. Obama will certainly work to smooth out disagreements, but in the meanwhile, a line-up of Arab countries led by Saudi Arabia and Egypt announced in Sharm el Sheikh (in addition to the war in Yemen against the Iran-backed Houthis) a strong, durable and even atomic opposition to the deal with Teheran.
Saudis suggest they undertook a nuclear plan in order to contrast what they deem would certainly be the development in case of a deal: nuclear weapons and carte blanche for the Shiite enemy to expand its hegemony in the Middle East. Its imperialism assimilated part of Syria, Iraq, Lebanon, and Yemen… Obama and Kerry suggest that Iran could be an ally, but who is allied with Iran cannot also be an associate of Egypt, Saudi Arabia, Jordan, or of the Gulf Countries. There is a part of the Sunni world fighting against Isis, but also against Iranian imperialism. It is odd that Obama, instead of fruitlessly spending energy in the management of his relationship with Iran, did not focus his efforts on more plausible allies like Egypt. Now, according to the deal, Iran would maintain 6,000 centrifuges, including the ultra-fast ones, and it would not dismantle the two fatal facilities of Natanz and Fordo. Moreover, nobody actually knows what else may be cooking under the affair of enriched uranium. In March 2005, Iran had 200 centrifuges, now it has 19 thousand. During the previous negotiations, it was supposed to maintain 1,500 centrifuges, now 6,000. In June, they will be more.